The USDA left its 2025-26 U.S. soybean ending stocks estimate unchanged from February amid offsetting changes but tightened its world outlook slightly.
In its monthly supply-demand update on Tuesday, the USDA increased U.S. soybean imports by 5 million bu, reflecting recent trade flows, while also raising the crush forecast by the same amount to 2.575 billion bu. Because the two revisions offset each other, U.S. ending stocks were left unchanged at 350 million bu, up 25 million from 2024-25.
The unchanged carryout came as a mild surprise to traders. Ahead of the report, analysts had expected U.S. soybean ending stocks to decline slightly to about 344 million bu.
USDA also made several adjustments within the products balance sheet. Soybean meal demand was revised higher, supporting the increase in crush, while soybean oil production was trimmed slightly due to a lower-than-expected extraction rate. Domestic soybean oil use was reduced marginally, largely reflecting weaker demand from the biofuel sector. Soybean oil use for biofuels was cut by 800 million lbs to 14 billion, although this was partly offset by stronger food and industrial demand.
Price projections were mixed. The season-average soybean price remained unchanged from February at $10.20/bu, while the soybean meal price was raised $5 to $300/short ton. The soybean oil price forecast increased 2 cents to 55 cents per pound.
Globally, USDA trimmed soybean production slightly from last month, mainly due to smaller crops in Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina’s soybean output was lowered 500,000 tonnes to 48 million tonnes due to reduced yields, while Ukraine’s crop was cut an identical amount to 5.5 million tonnes on lower planted area.
Brazil’s soybean crop—the largest in the world—was left unchanged at 180 million tonnes, contrary to trade expectations that called for a small reduction.
Global soybean ending stocks were lowered by 200,000 tonnes from last month to 125.3 million tonnes, reflecting smaller inventories in countries including India and Ukraine.
